UK Voter Sentiment Index
Continuous, empirical voter intelligence extracted directly from the Election Quiz directional engine. We track authentic public opinion across 60 real-world policy trade-offs, factoring in legislative, budgetary, and devolved constraints.
SCOT: Scot Greens (66.7%)
NI: DUP (60.0%)
Key Statistical Findings
- Public Ownership Super-Majority: 66.7% back full state passenger rail renationalisation, and 64.4% favor direct council housebuilding targets over private Section 106 quotas.
- Fiscal Rules vs. Wealth Taxation: While 66.7% demand strict fiscal caps on state borrowing, 53.3% back equalising Capital Gains Tax with standard Income Tax and 66.7% support maintaining 20% VAT on private schools.
- Devolved Regional Divergence: English respondents heavily prioritise utility executive accountability (73.0%) and council tax revaluation (73.0%), while Northern Ireland voters strongly back default integrated schooling (80.0%) and public ownership of Lough Neagh (80.0%).
Average Voter Alignment by Region
Exposing the underlying baseline support. (Averaged percentage match per party across all participants in that nation).
1. UK-Wide Core Policy Matrix
Evaluated across all verified UK respondents (N = 45).
| Domain | Policy Question | Option A | Option B | Skip |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Law & Justice | Repeat Offender Sentencing | 4.4% | ||
| Immigration | Legal Migration Quotas & Visas | 8.9% | ||
| Transport | Passenger Rail Ownership | 17.8% | ||
| Education | Private School 20% VAT | 15.6% | ||
| Economy | Public Sector Borrowing Rules | 6.7% | ||
| Housing | Council Housing Construction | 6.7% | ||
| Welfare | Welfare Residency Criteria | 8.9% | ||
| Health | Elderly Social Care Funding | 13.3% | ||
| Immigration | ECHR Judicial Membership | 13.3% | ||
| Economy | Capital Gains Tax Alignment | 24.4% | ||
| Climate | North Sea Drilling Licences | 6.7% | ||
| Defence | Defence Spending Target | 8.9% | ||
| Law & Justice | Adult Cannabis Regulation | 11.1% | ||
| Governance | General Election System | 13.3% | ||
| Climate | Green Transition Levies | 11.1% | ||
| Economy | Corporation Tax Rate Policy | 20.0% | ||
| Health | NHS Waiting Lists & Outsourcing | 24.4% | ||
| Immigration | Undocumented Migrant Settlement | 2.2% | ||
| Social Policy | School Gender Identity Guidance | 8.9% | ||
| Welfare | Two-Child Benefit Cap | 13.3% |
2. England Devolved Policy Matrix
Evaluated exclusively by English respondents (N = 37).
| Domain | Policy Question | Option A | Option B | Skip |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Environment | Water Company Sewage Spills | 8.1% | ||
| Local Gov | Council Tax Band Revaluation | 5.4% | ||
| Housing | Residential Leasehold Reform | 24.3% | ||
| Education | Selective Grammar Schools | 13.5% | ||
| Transport | Urban Clean Air Zones (ULEZ) | 8.1% | ||
| Health | NHS Prescription Charges | 2.7% | ||
| Energy | Solar Farms on Farmland | 0.0% | ||
| Governance | Metro Mayors Fiscal Devolution | 24.3% | ||
| Transport | Northern Rail vs Roads | 18.9% | ||
| Housing | Green Belt vs ‘Grey Belt’ | 86.5% |
3. Scotland Devolved Policy Matrix
Evaluated exclusively by Scottish respondents (N = 3).
| Domain | Policy Question | Option A | Option B | Skip |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governance | Section 30 Independence | 0.0% | ||
| Governance | EU Relationship for Scotland | 0.0% | ||
| Economy | Scottish Income Tax Divergence | 0.0% | ||
| Immigration | Devolved Scottish Visa System | 0.0% | ||
| Climate | North Sea Oil Transition | 0.0% | ||
| Defence | Faslane Trident Nuclear Base | 33.3% | ||
| Law | UK Internal Market Act Devolution | 66.7% | ||
| Education | Free University Tuition | 0.0% | ||
| Health | Safe Drug Consumption Rooms | 0.0% | ||
| Social | Gender Recognition Reform | 33.3% |
4. Northern Ireland Devolved Policy Matrix
Evaluated exclusively by Northern Irish respondents (N = 5).
| Domain | Policy Question | Option A | Option B | Skip |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governance | Windsor Framework Checks | 0.0% | ||
| Governance | 5-Year Border Poll Timeline | 20.0% | ||
| Governance | Stormont Coalition Reform | 0.0% | ||
| Economy | Dual Market Access Promotion | 0.0% | ||
| Economy | Devolved 12.5% Corporation Tax | 0.0% | ||
| Law | Troubles Legacy Act | 0.0% | ||
| Education | Default Integrated Schooling | 0.0% | ||
| Climate | Lough Neagh Public Ownership | 20.0% | ||
| Health | Domestic Water Metering | 0.0% | ||
| Social | Irish Language Act Funding | 0.0% |
5. Wales Devolved Policy Matrix
Devolved baseline policy framework (Awaiting responses, N = 0).
| Domain | Policy Question | Option A | Option B | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governance | Welsh Independence | Campaign for independent nation | Maintain Wales within UK | Awaiting |
| Governance | Justice & Policing Devolution | Devolve powers to Senedd | Keep unified under Westminster | Awaiting |
| Governance | Senedd Expansion (60 to 96) | Reverse expansion of members | Proceed with 96 members | Awaiting |
| Economy | Barnett Formula Replacement | Replace with needs-based model | Retain current formula | Awaiting |
| Economy | Crown Estate Devolution | Devolve revenue & land to Wales | Keep centralized under UK Crown | Awaiting |
| Housing | Second-Home Tax Premiums | Increase council tax premiums | Lower surcharges for tourism | Awaiting |
| Transport | Urban Default 20mph Limit | Reverse 20mph back to 30mph | Maintain default 20mph in cities | Awaiting |
| Climate | Sustainable Farming Scheme | Overhaul to prioritize output | Keep strict eco-requirements | Awaiting |
| Health | Welsh NHS Income Tax | Raise income tax for Welsh NHS | Avoid raising rates above UK | Awaiting |
| Social | Welsh Language in Public Jobs | Mandate Welsh fluency | Keep optional based on demand | Awaiting |
Appendix: Full Policy Trade-Off Reference
For readability, the data tables above use shortened labels. Below is the exact, unedited text presented to voters in the quiz engine for all 60 policy trade-offs.
UK-Wide Core Questions (20)
-
[Economy] Capital Gains Tax Alignment with Income Tax
Option A Equalise CGT rates with standard Income Tax to fund public services.Option B Keep CGT lower than Income Tax to incentivise private investment.
-
[Economy] Public Sector Borrowing & Debt Rules
Option A Enforce strict fiscal rules to cap government borrowing and debt.Option B Increase public borrowing to fund green energy and infrastructure.
-
[Economy] Corporation Tax Rate Strategy
Option A Maintain or raise corporate tax rates to protect public revenue.Option B Cut Corporation Tax rates to attract multinational business.
-
[Health] NHS Waiting Lists & Private Sector Involvement
Option A End private outsourcing and keep all funding in state-run NHS facilities.Option B Expand private healthcare contracts and offer tax relief for private care.
-
[Health] Elderly Social Care Funding Structure
Option A Establish a state-funded National Care Service via dedicated taxation.Option B Keep social care localised and promote private insurance options.
-
[Housing] Council & Social Housing Construction Targets
Option A Fund councils directly to build 100,000+ social homes annually.Option B Rely on private developers to build affordable homes via section 106 agreements.
-
[Immigration] European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) Membership
Option A Retain ECHR membership and process claims under international law.Option B Withdraw from the ECHR to enforce mandatory deportations.
-
[Immigration] Legal Net Migration Limits & Visa Controls
Option A Set visa quotas dynamically based on business and NHS demand.Option B Impose a strict, legally binding annual numerical cap on net migration.
-
[Immigration] Undocumented Migrants & Asylum Processing
Option A Offer a pathway to legal status for long-term undocumented residents.Option B Enforce a strict policy of retrospective mass deportation.
-
[Climate] Domestic Oil & Gas Licencing (North Sea)
Option A Ban all new fossil fuel licences to accelerate the green transition.Option B Issue new North Sea licences to secure domestic energy supplies.
-
[Climate] Green Energy Levies vs State Investments
Option A Fund state green investments (e.g., GB Energy) via fossil fuel levies.Option B Remove green levies from electricity bills to cut immediate household costs.
-
[Defence] National Defence Spending (% of GDP)
Option A Raise UK defence spending to 2.5%–3.0% of GDP immediately.Option B Cap defence spending at current levels and fund domestic services.
-
[Law] Sentencing Policy for Repeat Offenders
Option A Introduce mandatory minimum prison sentences for repeat offenders.Option B Reduce short prison sentences and expand community rehabilitation.
-
[Law] Adult Cannabis Legalisation & Taxation
Option A Legalise, regulate, and apply state taxation to adult cannabis sales.Option B Retain Class B status for cannabis and enforce strict criminal penalties.
-
[Education] 20% VAT on Independent Private School Fees
Option A Maintain 20% VAT on private school fees to recruit state school teachers.Option B Repeal the 20% VAT on private school fees.
-
[Welfare] Two-Child Benefit Cap Policy
Option A Abolish the two-child benefit cap to reduce child poverty.Option B Retain the two-child benefit cap to manage welfare costs.
-
[Welfare] Residency Criteria for Welfare Eligibility
Option A Require 5 years of residency and tax payment before claiming welfare.Option B Provide welfare access based on immediate economic need.
-
[Transport] Passenger Rail Network Ownership
Option A Bring passenger train operators into permanent public state ownership.Option B Maintain private franchise tenders for train operators.
-
[Governance] General Election Electoral System (PR vs FPTP)
Option A Replace First-Past-The-Post with Proportional Representation (PR).Option B Retain First-Past-The-Post for direct constituency accountability.
-
[Social] Gender Identity Guidance in Schools
Option A Ban schools from allowing pupils to socially transition without parental consent.Option B Allow teachers professional discretion on pupil identity support.
England Devolved Questions (10)
-
[Housing] Green Belt & ‘Grey Belt’ Housebuilding
Option A Reclassify lower-quality Green Belt (‘Grey Belt’) for housebuilding.Option B Protect Green Belt land unconditionally and restrict to urban brownfield.
-
[Housing] Residential Leasehold & Ground Rent Reform
Option A Cap ground rents at nominal rates and abolish the leasehold system.Option B Protect existing leasehold contracts to safeguard property investment.
-
[Governance] Metro Mayors Fiscal & Tax-Raising Powers
Option A Grant direct regional tax-raising and spending powers to mayors.Option B Keep primary taxation and spending centralised in Westminster.
-
[Governance] Council Tax Band Revaluation in England
Option A Revalue council tax bands to charge higher rates on high-value properties.Option B Freeze council tax bands to prevent property tax increases.
-
[Transport] Northern Powerhouse Rail vs Strategic Roads
Option A Prioritise Northern Powerhouse Rail and Midlands rail connections.Option B Shift infrastructure budgets toward strategic road network expansion.
-
[Transport] Urban Clean Air & Emission Zones (ULEZ)
Option A Expand clean air zones to reduce urban emissions and air pollution.Option B Scrap urban emission charges to prevent additional costs on motorists.
-
[Health] NHS Prescription Charges in England
Option A Abolish NHS prescription charges in England to match Scotland and Wales.Option B Retain prescription charges to generate revenue for frontline care.
-
[Climate] Water Utility Sewage Spills & Executive Accountability
Option A Impose strict criminal penalties and bonus bans on utility executives.Option B Allow private water firms to fund upgrades via regulated bill adjustments.
-
[Climate] Solar Energy Farms on Agricultural Farmland
Option A Restrict solar farm developments heavily on active agricultural land.Option B Allow solar farm installations on farmland to meet clean energy goals.
-
[Education] Selective Grammar Schools Expansion
Option A Expand selective grammar school places in areas with high demand.Option B Phase out selective admissions in favour of non-selective comprehensives.
Scotland Devolved Questions (10)
-
[Governance] Section 30 Scottish Independence Referendum
Option A Demand a Section 30 order to hold a legally binding referendum.Option B Reject further referendums and focus on devolved UK services.
-
[Governance] EU Relationship for Scotland
Option A Rejoin the European Union as an independent member state.Option B Remain within the UK outside the European Union single market.
-
[Economy] Scottish Income Tax Divergence
Option A Keep higher income tax rates in Scotland to fund public services.Option B Align Scottish income tax rates with the rest of the UK.
-
[Immigration] Devolved Scottish Visa & Immigration System
Option A Devolve immigration to create a tailored Scottish visa system.Option B Maintain single UK-wide immigration policy under Westminster.
-
[Climate] North Sea Oil Transition & Licencing (Holyrood)
Option A Phase out oil and gas extraction rapidly without new licences.Option B Approve new extraction licences to preserve offshore jobs.
-
[Defence] Faslane Trident Nuclear Submarine Basing
Option A Remove Trident nuclear submarines completely from Faslane base.Option B Maintain Trident nuclear submarines at Faslane indefinitely.
-
[Law] UK Internal Market Act Devolution Impact
Option A Repeal the UK Internal Market Act to restore full devolved power.Option B Retain the Act to ensure seamless trade across the UK.
-
[Education] Free University Tuition for Domestic Students
Option A Keep university tuition entirely free for Scottish domestic students.Option B Reintroduce tuition fees or graduate contributions to fund universities.
-
[Health] Safe Drug Consumption Facilities
Option A Introduce state-backed safe drug consumption facilities.Option B Focus resources strictly on criminal enforcement and abstinence.
-
[Social] Gender Recognition Reform & Section 35 Veto
Option A Defend self-declaration gender recognition laws passed by Holyrood.Option B Support Westminster’s veto of Scottish gender recognition changes.
Northern Ireland Devolved Questions (10)
-
[Governance] Windsor Framework & Post-Brexit Trade Checks
Option A Scrap Windsor Framework trade checks to secure UK integration.Option B Maintain Windsor Framework checks to protect EU market access.
-
[Governance] 5-Year Irish Unity Border Poll Timeline
Option A Call a referendum on Irish reunification within the next 5 years.Option B Oppose calling a border poll and maintain Union status.
-
[Governance] Stormont Mandatory vs Voluntary Coalition Reform
Option A Replace mandatory coalition with voluntary coalition to stop collapses.Option B Preserve mandatory power-sharing coalition rules under GFA.
-
[Economy] UK & EU Dual Market Access Promotion
Option A Aggressively market dual access to both UK and EU markets.Option B Prioritise economic alignment strictly with the UK internal market.
-
[Economy] Devolved 12.5% Corporation Tax (RoI Match)
Option A Devolve and cut Corporation Tax to match the Republic of Ireland (12.5%).Option B Keep Corporation Tax matched with the standard UK national rate.
-
[Law] Troubles Legacy Act Immunity Repeal
Option A Fully repeal the UK Legacy Act to allow criminal prosecutions.Option B Retain immunity frameworks to prevent historical prosecutions.
-
[Education] Default Integrated (Catholic/Protestant) Schooling
Option A Make integrated (Protestant & Catholic) schooling default.Option B Maintain parental choice between faith-based and state schools.
-
[Climate] Lough Neagh Public Ownership & Environmental Action
Option A Bring Lough Neagh into public ownership for environmental recovery.Option B Maintain private ownership rights over Lough Neagh bed and soil.
-
[Health] Domestic Water Metering & Charging in NI
Option A Keep water management publicly funded without domestic billing.Option B Introduce domestic water metering to fund infrastructure upgrades.
-
[Social] Irish Language Act Full Funding & Implementation
Option A Fully fund and expand implementation of the Irish Language Act.Option B Restrict central state funding for the Irish Language Act.
Wales Devolved Questions (10)
-
[Governance] Welsh Constitutional Independence Campaign
Option A Campaign for Wales to become an independent nation.Option B Maintain Wales firmly within the United Kingdom union.
-
[Governance] Devolution of Justice and Policing to Senedd
Option A Devolve policing and criminal justice powers directly to the Senedd.Option B Keep policing and justice unified under Westminster control.
-
[Governance] Senedd Expansion from 60 to 96 Members
Option A Reverse the planned expansion of Senedd members from 60 to 96.Option B Proceed with expanding Senedd representation to 96 members.
-
[Economy] Barnett Formula Replacement with Needs-Based Funding
Option A Replace the Barnett formula with a needs-based funding model.Option B Retain current Barnett formula calculations for Welsh funding.
-
[Economy] Crown Estate Land & Asset Devolution to Wales
Option A Devolve Crown Estate revenue and land assets directly to Wales.Option B Keep Crown Estate management centralised under the UK Crown.
-
[Housing] Rural Second-Home Council Tax Premiums
Option A Increase council tax premiums and restrict holiday lets further.Option B Lower council tax surcharges to support tourism investment.
-
[Transport] Default Urban 20mph Speed Limit Policy
Option A Completely reverse default 20mph speed limits back to 30mph.Option B Maintain default 20mph limits in urban residential areas.
-
[Climate] Sustainable Farming Scheme (SFS) Eco-Rules
Option A Overhaul SFS rules to prioritise agricultural output over eco-targets.Option B Keep strict environmental requirements attached to farm subsidies.
-
[Health] Welsh Income Tax Variation for NHS Funding
Option A Use Welsh income tax powers to raise funds directly for Welsh NHS.Option B Avoid raising local Welsh income tax rates above UK baseline.
-
[Social] Welsh Language Fluency for Public Sector Jobs
Option A Mandate Welsh language fluency for public sector management.Option B Keep Welsh language optional and based on local service demand.
