who should i vote for uk
Official Data Hub • Monthly Intelligence Updated: August 2026 • Verified N = 45

UK Voter Sentiment Index

Continuous, empirical voter intelligence extracted directly from the Election Quiz directional engine. We track authentic public opinion across 60 real-world policy trade-offs, factoring in legislative, budgetary, and devolved constraints.

Verified Submissions
N = 45
England: 37 | NI: 5 | Scot: 3
National Super-Consensus
82.2%
Mandatory repeat-offender prison terms
Primary Deadlocked Wedge
51.1% / 46.7%
Mass deportation vs. residency pathway
Regional #1 Winners
ENG: Green (40.5%)
SCOT: Scot Greens (66.7%)
NI: DUP (60.0%)
Average Alignment Strength
74.6%
Overall UK baseline party match

Key Statistical Findings

  • Public Ownership Super-Majority: 66.7% back full state passenger rail renationalisation, and 64.4% favor direct council housebuilding targets over private Section 106 quotas.
  • Fiscal Rules vs. Wealth Taxation: While 66.7% demand strict fiscal caps on state borrowing, 53.3% back equalising Capital Gains Tax with standard Income Tax and 66.7% support maintaining 20% VAT on private schools.
  • Devolved Regional Divergence: English respondents heavily prioritise utility executive accountability (73.0%) and council tax revaluation (73.0%), while Northern Ireland voters strongly back default integrated schooling (80.0%) and public ownership of Lough Neagh (80.0%).

Average Voter Alignment by Region

Exposing the underlying baseline support. (Averaged percentage match per party across all participants in that nation).

England
Labour56.2%
Green Party56.1%
Lib Dems55.7%
Reform UK47.1%
Restore Britain44.8%
Conservative44.2%
Scotland
Scottish Greens74.3%
SNP68.3%
Lib Dems65.3%
Alba Party57.3%
Labour51.3%
Conservative27.0%
Northern Ireland
DUP54.8%
TUV52.6%
UUP52.2%
Alliance Party46.2%
SDLP43.8%
Sinn Féin43.8%
Wales
Awaiting verified baseline entries for Plaid Cymru, Welsh Labour, Welsh Conservatives, and Welsh Lib Dems.

1. UK-Wide Core Policy Matrix

Evaluated across all verified UK respondents (N = 45).

Domain Policy Question Option A Option B Skip
Law & Justice Repeat Offender Sentencing
Mandatory prison terms82.2%
Reduce short sentences & rehab13.3%
4.4%
Immigration Legal Migration Quotas & Visas
Dynamic quotas based on need68.9%
Binding annual zero-net cap22.2%
8.9%
Transport Passenger Rail Ownership
Permanent public ownership66.7%
Private franchise tendering15.6%
17.8%
Education Private School 20% VAT
Maintain 20% VAT for teachers66.7%
Repeal 20% private school VAT17.8%
15.6%
Economy Public Sector Borrowing Rules
Enforce strict fiscal debt caps66.7%
Borrow for green infrastructure26.7%
6.7%
Housing Council Housing Construction
Fund 100k+ council homes64.4%
Rely on private Section 10628.9%
6.7%
Welfare Welfare Residency Criteria
Require 5 yrs residency/taxes64.4%
Provide on immediate need26.7%
8.9%
Health Elderly Social Care Funding
State National Care Service57.8%
Localised care & private insurance28.9%
13.3%
Immigration ECHR Judicial Membership
Retain ECHR & global law55.6%
Withdraw for deportation powers31.1%
13.3%
Economy Capital Gains Tax Alignment
Equalise CGT with Income Tax53.3%
Keep CGT lower for investment22.2%
24.4%
Climate North Sea Drilling Licences
Ban all new fossil licences53.3%
Issue new licences for supply40.0%
6.7%
Defence Defence Spending Target
Raise to 2.5%–3.0% GDP53.3%
Cap at current levels37.8%
8.9%
Law & Justice Adult Cannabis Regulation
Legalise, regulate, and tax53.3%
Retain Class B status35.6%
11.1%
Governance General Election System
Replace FPTP with PR53.3%
Retain FPTP for direct link33.3%
13.3%
Climate Green Transition Levies
Fund GB Energy via fossil levies51.1%
Scrap levies to cut energy bills37.8%
11.1%
Economy Corporation Tax Rate Policy
Maintain or raise corporate rates48.9%
Cut rate to attract business31.1%
20.0%
Health NHS Waiting Lists & Outsourcing
End outsourcing; 100% state NHS46.7%
Expand private contracts / relief28.9%
24.4%
Immigration Undocumented Migrant Settlement
Legal residency pathway46.7%
Mass deportation51.1%
2.2%
Social Policy School Gender Identity Guidance
Ban transition without consent42.2%
Allow teacher discretion48.9%
8.9%
Welfare Two-Child Benefit Cap
Abolish cap for poverty35.6%
Retain cap for welfare costs51.1%
13.3%

2. England Devolved Policy Matrix

Evaluated exclusively by English respondents (N = 37).

Domain Policy Question Option A Option B Skip
Environment Water Company Sewage Spills
CEO penalties & bonus bans73.0%
Fund upgrades via bills18.9%
8.1%
Local Gov Council Tax Band Revaluation
Revalue bands for luxury homes73.0%
Freeze bands to prevent rises21.6%
5.4%
Housing Residential Leasehold Reform
Cap ground rent & abolish62.2%
Protect existing contracts13.5%
24.3%
Education Selective Grammar Schools
Expand grammar places56.8%
Phase out for comprehensives29.7%
13.5%
Transport Urban Clean Air Zones (ULEZ)
Expand zones to cut emissions56.8%
Scrap charges on motorists35.1%
8.1%
Health NHS Prescription Charges
Abolish to match Scot/Wales54.1%
Retain to fund frontline care43.2%
2.7%
Energy Solar Farms on Farmland
Restrict solar on farmland54.1%
Allow solar for clean targets45.9%
0.0%
Governance Metro Mayors Fiscal Devolution
Grant tax-raising powers51.4%
Keep tax in Westminster24.3%
24.3%
Transport Northern Rail vs Roads
Prioritise NPR & Midlands rail51.4%
Shift funds to road network29.7%
18.9%
Housing Green Belt vs ‘Grey Belt’
Reclassify Grey Belt5.4%
Protect Green Belt8.1%
86.5%

3. Scotland Devolved Policy Matrix

Evaluated exclusively by Scottish respondents (N = 3).

Domain Policy Question Option A Option B Skip
Governance Section 30 Independence
Demand Section 30 order66.7%
Reject referendums33.3%
0.0%
Governance EU Relationship for Scotland
Rejoin EU as independent state66.7%
Remain outside single market33.3%
0.0%
Economy Scottish Income Tax Divergence
Keep higher tax for services66.7%
Align with rest of UK33.3%
0.0%
Immigration Devolved Scottish Visa System
Devolve immigration for visa66.7%
Maintain UK-wide policy33.3%
0.0%
Climate North Sea Oil Transition
Phase out extraction66.7%
Approve licences for jobs33.3%
0.0%
Defence Faslane Trident Nuclear Base
Remove completely0.0%
Maintain indefinitely66.7%
33.3%
Law UK Internal Market Act Devolution
Repeal Act to restore power33.3%
Retain Act for seamless trade0.0%
66.7%
Education Free University Tuition
Keep entirely free100.0%
Reintroduce fees0.0%
0.0%
Health Safe Drug Consumption Rooms
Introduce safe sites100.0%
Focus on enforcement0.0%
0.0%
Social Gender Recognition Reform
Defend Holyrood self-ID33.3%
Support Westminster veto33.3%
33.3%

4. Northern Ireland Devolved Policy Matrix

Evaluated exclusively by Northern Irish respondents (N = 5).

Domain Policy Question Option A Option B Skip
Governance Windsor Framework Checks
Scrap checks for UK integration60.0%
Maintain checks for EU access40.0%
0.0%
Governance 5-Year Border Poll Timeline
Call referendum in 5 yrs20.0%
Oppose poll; keep Union60.0%
20.0%
Governance Stormont Coalition Reform
Replace with voluntary coalition40.0%
Preserve mandatory rules60.0%
0.0%
Economy Dual Market Access Promotion
Market UK & EU dual access60.0%
Align strict with UK market40.0%
0.0%
Economy Devolved 12.5% Corporation Tax
Cut rate to match RoI40.0%
Keep standard UK rate60.0%
0.0%
Law Troubles Legacy Act
Fully repeal Act20.0%
Retain immunity frameworks80.0%
0.0%
Education Default Integrated Schooling
Make integrated default80.0%
Maintain faith choice20.0%
0.0%
Climate Lough Neagh Public Ownership
Bring into public ownership80.0%
Maintain private beds0.0%
20.0%
Health Domestic Water Metering
Keep publicly funded80.0%
Introduce metering20.0%
0.0%
Social Irish Language Act Funding
Fully fund implementation40.0%
Restrict central funding60.0%
0.0%

5. Wales Devolved Policy Matrix

Devolved baseline policy framework (Awaiting responses, N = 0).

Domain Policy Question Option A Option B Status
GovernanceWelsh IndependenceCampaign for independent nationMaintain Wales within UKAwaiting
GovernanceJustice & Policing DevolutionDevolve powers to SeneddKeep unified under WestminsterAwaiting
GovernanceSenedd Expansion (60 to 96)Reverse expansion of membersProceed with 96 membersAwaiting
EconomyBarnett Formula ReplacementReplace with needs-based modelRetain current formulaAwaiting
EconomyCrown Estate DevolutionDevolve revenue & land to WalesKeep centralized under UK CrownAwaiting
HousingSecond-Home Tax PremiumsIncrease council tax premiumsLower surcharges for tourismAwaiting
TransportUrban Default 20mph LimitReverse 20mph back to 30mphMaintain default 20mph in citiesAwaiting
ClimateSustainable Farming SchemeOverhaul to prioritize outputKeep strict eco-requirementsAwaiting
HealthWelsh NHS Income TaxRaise income tax for Welsh NHSAvoid raising rates above UKAwaiting
SocialWelsh Language in Public JobsMandate Welsh fluencyKeep optional based on demandAwaiting

Appendix: Full Policy Trade-Off Reference

For readability, the data tables above use shortened labels. Below is the exact, unedited text presented to voters in the quiz engine for all 60 policy trade-offs.

UK-Wide Core Questions (20)

  • [Economy] Capital Gains Tax Alignment with Income Tax
    Option A Equalise CGT rates with standard Income Tax to fund public services.
    Option B Keep CGT lower than Income Tax to incentivise private investment.
  • [Economy] Public Sector Borrowing & Debt Rules
    Option A Enforce strict fiscal rules to cap government borrowing and debt.
    Option B Increase public borrowing to fund green energy and infrastructure.
  • [Economy] Corporation Tax Rate Strategy
    Option A Maintain or raise corporate tax rates to protect public revenue.
    Option B Cut Corporation Tax rates to attract multinational business.
  • [Health] NHS Waiting Lists & Private Sector Involvement
    Option A End private outsourcing and keep all funding in state-run NHS facilities.
    Option B Expand private healthcare contracts and offer tax relief for private care.
  • [Health] Elderly Social Care Funding Structure
    Option A Establish a state-funded National Care Service via dedicated taxation.
    Option B Keep social care localised and promote private insurance options.
  • [Housing] Council & Social Housing Construction Targets
    Option A Fund councils directly to build 100,000+ social homes annually.
    Option B Rely on private developers to build affordable homes via section 106 agreements.
  • [Immigration] European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) Membership
    Option A Retain ECHR membership and process claims under international law.
    Option B Withdraw from the ECHR to enforce mandatory deportations.
  • [Immigration] Legal Net Migration Limits & Visa Controls
    Option A Set visa quotas dynamically based on business and NHS demand.
    Option B Impose a strict, legally binding annual numerical cap on net migration.
  • [Immigration] Undocumented Migrants & Asylum Processing
    Option A Offer a pathway to legal status for long-term undocumented residents.
    Option B Enforce a strict policy of retrospective mass deportation.
  • [Climate] Domestic Oil & Gas Licencing (North Sea)
    Option A Ban all new fossil fuel licences to accelerate the green transition.
    Option B Issue new North Sea licences to secure domestic energy supplies.
  • [Climate] Green Energy Levies vs State Investments
    Option A Fund state green investments (e.g., GB Energy) via fossil fuel levies.
    Option B Remove green levies from electricity bills to cut immediate household costs.
  • [Defence] National Defence Spending (% of GDP)
    Option A Raise UK defence spending to 2.5%–3.0% of GDP immediately.
    Option B Cap defence spending at current levels and fund domestic services.
  • [Law] Sentencing Policy for Repeat Offenders
    Option A Introduce mandatory minimum prison sentences for repeat offenders.
    Option B Reduce short prison sentences and expand community rehabilitation.
  • [Law] Adult Cannabis Legalisation & Taxation
    Option A Legalise, regulate, and apply state taxation to adult cannabis sales.
    Option B Retain Class B status for cannabis and enforce strict criminal penalties.
  • [Education] 20% VAT on Independent Private School Fees
    Option A Maintain 20% VAT on private school fees to recruit state school teachers.
    Option B Repeal the 20% VAT on private school fees.
  • [Welfare] Two-Child Benefit Cap Policy
    Option A Abolish the two-child benefit cap to reduce child poverty.
    Option B Retain the two-child benefit cap to manage welfare costs.
  • [Welfare] Residency Criteria for Welfare Eligibility
    Option A Require 5 years of residency and tax payment before claiming welfare.
    Option B Provide welfare access based on immediate economic need.
  • [Transport] Passenger Rail Network Ownership
    Option A Bring passenger train operators into permanent public state ownership.
    Option B Maintain private franchise tenders for train operators.
  • [Governance] General Election Electoral System (PR vs FPTP)
    Option A Replace First-Past-The-Post with Proportional Representation (PR).
    Option B Retain First-Past-The-Post for direct constituency accountability.
  • [Social] Gender Identity Guidance in Schools
    Option A Ban schools from allowing pupils to socially transition without parental consent.
    Option B Allow teachers professional discretion on pupil identity support.

England Devolved Questions (10)

  • [Housing] Green Belt & ‘Grey Belt’ Housebuilding
    Option A Reclassify lower-quality Green Belt (‘Grey Belt’) for housebuilding.
    Option B Protect Green Belt land unconditionally and restrict to urban brownfield.
  • [Housing] Residential Leasehold & Ground Rent Reform
    Option A Cap ground rents at nominal rates and abolish the leasehold system.
    Option B Protect existing leasehold contracts to safeguard property investment.
  • [Governance] Metro Mayors Fiscal & Tax-Raising Powers
    Option A Grant direct regional tax-raising and spending powers to mayors.
    Option B Keep primary taxation and spending centralised in Westminster.
  • [Governance] Council Tax Band Revaluation in England
    Option A Revalue council tax bands to charge higher rates on high-value properties.
    Option B Freeze council tax bands to prevent property tax increases.
  • [Transport] Northern Powerhouse Rail vs Strategic Roads
    Option A Prioritise Northern Powerhouse Rail and Midlands rail connections.
    Option B Shift infrastructure budgets toward strategic road network expansion.
  • [Transport] Urban Clean Air & Emission Zones (ULEZ)
    Option A Expand clean air zones to reduce urban emissions and air pollution.
    Option B Scrap urban emission charges to prevent additional costs on motorists.
  • [Health] NHS Prescription Charges in England
    Option A Abolish NHS prescription charges in England to match Scotland and Wales.
    Option B Retain prescription charges to generate revenue for frontline care.
  • [Climate] Water Utility Sewage Spills & Executive Accountability
    Option A Impose strict criminal penalties and bonus bans on utility executives.
    Option B Allow private water firms to fund upgrades via regulated bill adjustments.
  • [Climate] Solar Energy Farms on Agricultural Farmland
    Option A Restrict solar farm developments heavily on active agricultural land.
    Option B Allow solar farm installations on farmland to meet clean energy goals.
  • [Education] Selective Grammar Schools Expansion
    Option A Expand selective grammar school places in areas with high demand.
    Option B Phase out selective admissions in favour of non-selective comprehensives.

Scotland Devolved Questions (10)

  • [Governance] Section 30 Scottish Independence Referendum
    Option A Demand a Section 30 order to hold a legally binding referendum.
    Option B Reject further referendums and focus on devolved UK services.
  • [Governance] EU Relationship for Scotland
    Option A Rejoin the European Union as an independent member state.
    Option B Remain within the UK outside the European Union single market.
  • [Economy] Scottish Income Tax Divergence
    Option A Keep higher income tax rates in Scotland to fund public services.
    Option B Align Scottish income tax rates with the rest of the UK.
  • [Immigration] Devolved Scottish Visa & Immigration System
    Option A Devolve immigration to create a tailored Scottish visa system.
    Option B Maintain single UK-wide immigration policy under Westminster.
  • [Climate] North Sea Oil Transition & Licencing (Holyrood)
    Option A Phase out oil and gas extraction rapidly without new licences.
    Option B Approve new extraction licences to preserve offshore jobs.
  • [Defence] Faslane Trident Nuclear Submarine Basing
    Option A Remove Trident nuclear submarines completely from Faslane base.
    Option B Maintain Trident nuclear submarines at Faslane indefinitely.
  • [Law] UK Internal Market Act Devolution Impact
    Option A Repeal the UK Internal Market Act to restore full devolved power.
    Option B Retain the Act to ensure seamless trade across the UK.
  • [Education] Free University Tuition for Domestic Students
    Option A Keep university tuition entirely free for Scottish domestic students.
    Option B Reintroduce tuition fees or graduate contributions to fund universities.
  • [Health] Safe Drug Consumption Facilities
    Option A Introduce state-backed safe drug consumption facilities.
    Option B Focus resources strictly on criminal enforcement and abstinence.
  • [Social] Gender Recognition Reform & Section 35 Veto
    Option A Defend self-declaration gender recognition laws passed by Holyrood.
    Option B Support Westminster’s veto of Scottish gender recognition changes.

Northern Ireland Devolved Questions (10)

  • [Governance] Windsor Framework & Post-Brexit Trade Checks
    Option A Scrap Windsor Framework trade checks to secure UK integration.
    Option B Maintain Windsor Framework checks to protect EU market access.
  • [Governance] 5-Year Irish Unity Border Poll Timeline
    Option A Call a referendum on Irish reunification within the next 5 years.
    Option B Oppose calling a border poll and maintain Union status.
  • [Governance] Stormont Mandatory vs Voluntary Coalition Reform
    Option A Replace mandatory coalition with voluntary coalition to stop collapses.
    Option B Preserve mandatory power-sharing coalition rules under GFA.
  • [Economy] UK & EU Dual Market Access Promotion
    Option A Aggressively market dual access to both UK and EU markets.
    Option B Prioritise economic alignment strictly with the UK internal market.
  • [Economy] Devolved 12.5% Corporation Tax (RoI Match)
    Option A Devolve and cut Corporation Tax to match the Republic of Ireland (12.5%).
    Option B Keep Corporation Tax matched with the standard UK national rate.
  • [Law] Troubles Legacy Act Immunity Repeal
    Option A Fully repeal the UK Legacy Act to allow criminal prosecutions.
    Option B Retain immunity frameworks to prevent historical prosecutions.
  • [Education] Default Integrated (Catholic/Protestant) Schooling
    Option A Make integrated (Protestant & Catholic) schooling default.
    Option B Maintain parental choice between faith-based and state schools.
  • [Climate] Lough Neagh Public Ownership & Environmental Action
    Option A Bring Lough Neagh into public ownership for environmental recovery.
    Option B Maintain private ownership rights over Lough Neagh bed and soil.
  • [Health] Domestic Water Metering & Charging in NI
    Option A Keep water management publicly funded without domestic billing.
    Option B Introduce domestic water metering to fund infrastructure upgrades.
  • [Social] Irish Language Act Full Funding & Implementation
    Option A Fully fund and expand implementation of the Irish Language Act.
    Option B Restrict central state funding for the Irish Language Act.

Wales Devolved Questions (10)

  • [Governance] Welsh Constitutional Independence Campaign
    Option A Campaign for Wales to become an independent nation.
    Option B Maintain Wales firmly within the United Kingdom union.
  • [Governance] Devolution of Justice and Policing to Senedd
    Option A Devolve policing and criminal justice powers directly to the Senedd.
    Option B Keep policing and justice unified under Westminster control.
  • [Governance] Senedd Expansion from 60 to 96 Members
    Option A Reverse the planned expansion of Senedd members from 60 to 96.
    Option B Proceed with expanding Senedd representation to 96 members.
  • [Economy] Barnett Formula Replacement with Needs-Based Funding
    Option A Replace the Barnett formula with a needs-based funding model.
    Option B Retain current Barnett formula calculations for Welsh funding.
  • [Economy] Crown Estate Land & Asset Devolution to Wales
    Option A Devolve Crown Estate revenue and land assets directly to Wales.
    Option B Keep Crown Estate management centralised under the UK Crown.
  • [Housing] Rural Second-Home Council Tax Premiums
    Option A Increase council tax premiums and restrict holiday lets further.
    Option B Lower council tax surcharges to support tourism investment.
  • [Transport] Default Urban 20mph Speed Limit Policy
    Option A Completely reverse default 20mph speed limits back to 30mph.
    Option B Maintain default 20mph limits in urban residential areas.
  • [Climate] Sustainable Farming Scheme (SFS) Eco-Rules
    Option A Overhaul SFS rules to prioritise agricultural output over eco-targets.
    Option B Keep strict environmental requirements attached to farm subsidies.
  • [Health] Welsh Income Tax Variation for NHS Funding
    Option A Use Welsh income tax powers to raise funds directly for Welsh NHS.
    Option B Avoid raising local Welsh income tax rates above UK baseline.
  • [Social] Welsh Language Fluency for Public Sector Jobs
    Option A Mandate Welsh language fluency for public sector management.
    Option B Keep Welsh language optional and based on local service demand.

Where Do Your Political Instincts Place You?

Compare your views across 30 real-world manifesto trade-offs and find your authentic party match.

Data Attribution: First-party empirical logs via electionquiz.co.uk.
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