Greater Manchester Mayoral Election Results 2026: Full Breakdown and Analysis
The results of the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral By-Election are officially in, delivering a decisive victory for Labour’s Bev Craig while confirming a seismic realignment across the region’s political map.
Triggered after Andy Burnham stepped down to return to Westminster as the MP for Makerfield, the by-election served as the first major metropolitan test of voter sentiment in the North West ahead of the next general election cycle. Craig—the former Leader of Manchester City Council—secured 66.3% of the final run-off vote, becoming the first woman to lead the Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA).
However, behind Labour’s comfortable headline margin sits a transformed electoral battleground: Reform UK claimed second place across the metropolitan county, while the Conservatives dropped to fifth.
Headline Results and Vote Share
Because no single candidate passed the 50% threshold on first preferences, the contest went to a second-round run-off under the Supplementary Vote system:
First Preference Breakdown
| Candidate | Party | First Preferences | Vote Share |
| Bev Craig | Labour and Co-operative Party | 251,449 | 47.15% |
| Sian Astley | Reform UK | 111,928 | 20.99% |
| Geraldine Coggins | Green Party | 64,968 | 12.18% |
| Marlon Scott West | Restore Britain | 46,289 | 8.68% |
| Phil Eckersley | Conservative Party | 41,021 | 7.69% |
| Richard Kilpatrick | Liberal Democrats | 14,702 | 2.76% |
| Marcus Jonathan Farmer | Independent | 4,302 | 0.81% |
- Total Valid First-Round Votes: 534,659
- Turnout: 25.14% (Electorate: ~2.14 million)
Final Stage Run-Off (Top Two Candidates)
| Candidate | Party | Total Votes (1st + 2nd Preferences) | Final Share |
| Bev Craig | Labour & Co-operative | 309,525 | 66.30% |
| Sian Astley | Reform UK | 157,178 | 33.70% |
- Winning Majority: 152,347 votes
4 Major Takeaways from the 2026 Contest
1. Labour Retains Control, but Turnout Drops
Bev Craig’s victory ensures continuity for the GMCA’s signature policies—including full public control of the Bee Network buses, further integration of local commuter rail, and the rollout of the Places for Everyone housing framework.
However, holding a mid-summer by-election resulted in a turnout of just 25.14%, down from the 31.7% recorded at the 2024 mayoral election. While Craig dominated the core urban wards of Manchester, Salford, and Trafford, maintaining voter enthusiasm outside general election cycles remains an ongoing challenge for Labour’s regional machine.
2. Reform UK Replaces the Conservatives as the Primary Opposition
The most significant trend of the night was Sian Astley’s second-place finish with nearly 21% of first preferences, rising to 33.7% after the reallocation of transfers.
Reform UK ran strongly across the outer boroughs—particularly in parts of Bolton, Wigan, Rochdale, Oldham, and Tameside. By capturing the runner-up spot, Reform demonstrated that their appeal in post-industrial northern towns extends beyond parliamentary protest votes into regional governance elections.
3. A Crushing Night for the Conservatives
Finishing in fifth place with just 7.69% of first preferences marks the Conservatives’ worst performance in a Greater Manchester-wide ballot since the mayoralty was created in 2017.
Squeezed between Reform UK on the right and Restore Britain capturing nearly 9% of the vote, the traditional Tory vote across suburban hubs like Stockport, Trafford, and Bury completely fragmented, leaving candidate Phil Eckersley trailing behind the Green Party.
4. Greens Consolidate Third Place in Urban Wards
Green candidate Geraldine Coggins secured a respectable third place with over 12% of first preferences, performing strongly across student-heavy and inner-city Manchester wards, as well as parts of Chorlton, Didsbury, and Altrincham. The result shows that urban progressive voters continue to push Labour on housing standards, clean air policies, and environmental targets.
Looking Ahead to 2028 and 2029
Bev Craig will serve the remaining two years of Andy Burnham’s original mandate before facing voters again at the regularly scheduled May 2028 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election.
For Westminster strategists watching ahead of the 2029 UK General Election, these results highlight two distinct political realities across the North West:
- The Core Metro: A solid progressive base where Labour and the Greens dominate municipal decision-making.
- The Outer Ring: A volatile electorate where the Conservative collapse has opened a wide corridor for insurgent parties like Reform UK and Restore Britain to challenge established seats.
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